Jim, one has to be careful with analogies. We are in a situation -- with neither an incumbent president nor incumbent vice president running -- that we haven't seen since 1952. This election features the oldest nominee ever versus the first black nominee. We're having an election in the middle of two wars and an economic meltdown. So mining history in search of an apt analogy may be a waste of time.

The other day, a friend said to me, "Well, Al Gore was ahead by 11 and lost." Yes, but Gore was the de facto incumbent in 2000, and George W. Bush was the fresh young face of change. The analogy doesn't fit.

On the general topic of polling, it is worth mentioning that we've got a lot more polls to look at now than we've ever had before, and all available with one click at Real Clear Politics. (Eight years ago, RCP didn't ex...